U.S. 2025/26 Corn Supplies Sharply Higher on Area & Yield Gains

Record-high U.S. corn production is projected for the 2025/26 marketing year, based on the season’s first survey-based corn-yield forecast of the year and updated area estimates from the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. A near 2-million-acre increase in harvested area (to 88.7 million) combines with a 7.8-bushel per-acre rise in yields (now 188.8 bushels per acre) to support an updated corn production forecast of 16.7 billion bushels. Taking into account adjustments in 2024/25 use (and ultimately, reduced old crop carryout), new crop supplies are elevated to more than 18.0 billion bushels. Use categories are revised higher on the basis of expanded supplies—with feed and residual raised 250 million bushels, ethanol use up 100 million bushels, and exports raised 200 million bushels. Ending stocks absorb the balance of the supply increase and are raised by 457 million bushels, putting downward pressure on the season average farm price—lowered 30 cents this month to $3.90 per bushel.

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