The volume of U.S. meat exports in major categories is projected to grow through 2033, according to USDA long-term projection data. Rising incomes abroad and a moderately declining real exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of major agricultural trade partners lend support to U.S. red meat and poultry exports.
Notably, by 2028, pork exports are set to exceed exports of broiler chickens for the first time since 1976. Steady growth in U.S. pork production, driven by a combination of increasing slaughter weights, rising pigs per litter, and higher inventories, is projected to support rapid growth in exports.
Of the three meats, per capita pork consumption is projected to increase by the smallest amount (1.7 pounds), peaking in 2030 at 53.6 pounds before starting to fall near the end of the projection period to 52.7 pounds by 2033.
Per capita consumption of beef is forecast at the lowest level in 9 years for 2024 but is projected to increase 2.6 pounds by the end of the projection period.
Per capita broiler consumption is projected to grow 7.3 pounds. Domestic per capita meat consumption is driven by continued income growth among consumers as well as an ongoing preference for animal proteins.
